Graham Warwick, Executive Editor of Aviation Week, presented “Looking to the Future: New Advancements.” His presentation was a highlight on day one of PNAA Advance.
Warwick led with Advanced Air Mobility, showing renderings of electric vertical take-off and landing copters and other small helicopter-like
vehicles. While service is expected to begin at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, the industry envisions a modest start this decade, ramping up to become “a massive endeavor in the 2030s.”
Next, Warwick spoke on regional aviation’s emphasis on decarbonization. There’s a distance advantage with regional rollouts since new propulsion systems are expected to first serve shorter ranges. Industry experts believe there is pent-up demand across smaller airports and smaller city pairs, and some businesses have begun with hybrid electric retrofits. The intention is to later move to all-electric aircraft once battery technology advances, something that is happening regularly now. From there, hydrogen-electric vehicles will start being used, with each new generation larger than the last.
Warwick outlined the possibilities of these new technologies, then turned to the challenges: automation will take time from a regulatory perspective. Decarbonization needs demand so that regional aviation systems can be rebuilt. Advanced air mobility (AAM) is so future-focused, with timelines slipping and gaps in regulations. At present, there are no operating or pilot licensing rules for AAM in the United States. Regulators are working on it, but regulation takes time. In the AAM space, there are many manufacturers, and some experts say only 3-4 will survive. Warwick cited numbers to back up the possibility that mergers and acquisitions will pick up in the coming years, with it taking a billion dollars to build a new AAM vehicle and then another to set up the service.
Warwick closed with his thoughts on Airbus, asking attendees how serious is Airbus about hydrogen? Europe’s governments are supportive but Airbus has yet to plant its flag.
PNAA Advance continues Wednesday and Thursday with a wide range of sessions and opportunities to meet with industry and the supporting aerospace ecosystem.